Merkel celebrates ‘super result’

By Quentin Peel and Stefan Wagstyl in Berlin and Michael Steen in Frankfurt

Angela Merkel was heading for a big personal victory in the German election on Sunday, but looked set to fall just short of a historic absolute majority in parliament.

The collapse of the liberal Free Democratic party, junior partner in her centre-right coalition, is likely to force Ms Merkel into tough negotiations with the opposition Social Democrats, or the Green party, to forge an alternative government.

According to the latest projections on ZDF public television channel, Ms Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union, with the Christian Social Union, was set to win nearly 42 per cent of the vote – their best result in more than 20 years. Computer forecasts at midnight put them just three seats short of an absolute majority in the Bundestag.

The outcome amounts to a powerful endorsement of the chancellor’s handling of the eurozone crisis and of the domestic economy during the past four years. But the poor performance of the FDP, which slumped below the minimum 5 per cent needed to win any parliamentary seats, leaves considerable uncertainty over the composition of an alternative coalition.

The eurosceptic Alternative für Deutschland looked unlikely to get into parliament, but contributed to the demise of the FDP by stealing its voters. According to midnight estimates the AfD would get 4.7 per cent and the FDP 4.8 per cent of the final vote.

The incumbent chancellor’s party enjoyed a swing of some eight percentage points to 41.8 per cent of the vote, according to projections and exit polls by the two big public broadcasters, while her junior coalition partner in the outgoing government looked set to lose all its seats in the Bundestag.

“This is a super result,” Ms Merkel told cheering party activists after a campaign that focused squarely on her personality as a safe pair of hands in turbulent times but eschewed detailed policy debate. In television interviews, she refused to be drawn on what it meant for the formation of the next government, saying she would wait for the final results.

If AfD remains outside parliament, both ARD and ZDF projected that the CDU and its Bavarian sister party the Christian Social Union were very close to an absolute majority in the parliament, which has 598 seats but can have more depending on constituency votes.

Konrad Adenauer was the last chancellor to command a single-party absolute majority in the chamber after winning a second term in 1957.

But if the AfD crosses the threshold for parliamentary representation, the most likely outcome would switch to a grand coalition between the CDU/CSU and the opposition Social Democrats.

“The ball is in Ms Merkel’s court, she must gather together a majority,” Peer Steinbrück, the SPD’s candidate for chancellor, told supporters after congratulating Ms Merkel on her victory.

The joy at the headquarters of Ms Merkel’s conservative party was tempered by dismay after exit polls suggested that the liberal Free Democratic party would fail to gain the minimum 5 per cent needed to win seats in the Bundestag.

The forecast of a vote for the FDP of 4.8 per cent would deny Ms Merkel any continuation of her current coalition government. 

The result for her own CDU, and its sister CSU party, was put at 42 per cent or more, the best outcome for the conservative parties for more than 20 years, although it would represent the lowest share of the vote in German elections to have achieved an absolute majority. 

The exit polls put the centre-left SPD on 25.6 per cent and their Green party allies on 8.5 per cent for a combined score of 34.1 per cent, well behind the CDU/CSU.

A grand coalition would still require approval from the SPD, whose leaders were licking their wounds on Sunday night. The prospect presents the party with a deep dilemma. Grassroots members of the party, especially on the left, are deeply opposed to any coalition with the CDU, after the party fell to just 23 per cent in the 2009 election, after four years of shared power. 

The result was greeted with cheers at the CDU party headquarters in Berlin, and then with shock, as the failure of the FDP to make the 5 per cent hurdle sank in.

“It is a great win for Angela Merkel, but it will be terrible for coalition-building,” said Florian Waldmann, a CDU member attending the post-election party. “I am laughing and have tears in my eyes.”

Volker Kauder, CDU leader in the Bundestag, said the result was “a clear signal from the voters” for the party to form the heart of the next government.

Which coalition will form the next German government? Use our calculator to select parties and see if they can form a majority.

At FDP headquarters, both Rainer Brüderle, who headed the party’s election campaign, and Philipp Rösler, party chairman, took responsibility for the disaster.

Christian Lindner, leader of the FDP in North Rhine-Westphalia, described the outcome as “the bitterest hour for the liberals in many decades”. He said the party had simply failed to convince public opinion. Otto Fricke, the party’s budget spokesman, called it a “bitter defeat”.

At SPD headquarters, Sigmar Gabriel, the party chairman, tried to put a brave face on the outcome, saying: “We increased our vote, but not by as much as we expected.”

He made no comment on the possibility of a grand coalition and nor did Mr Steinbrück, the party’s unsuccessful challenger for the chancellor’s job. But the SPD leaders have summoned a party convention for next Friday, to consider how they should react.

At CDU headquarters, a beaming Ms Merkel accepted ecstatic applause from her supporters. In her usual cautious way, she added: “We will handle [the situation] responsibly and carefully.

“It is too early to say how we will proceed,” she added, saying that a final result must come first. But for the time being “we can celebrate tonight, because we’ve done a great job”.

 Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2013.