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The double veto cast by Russia and China in the United Nations Security Council has forced Western governments to reappraise their approach towards Syria. Britain, France and America will now be considering other ways of turning up the heat on President Assad's regime.


By David Blair

 
 
 

 
The double veto cast by Russia and China in the United Nations Security Council has forced Western governments to reappraise their approach towards Syria. Britain, France and America will now be considering other ways of turning up the heat on President Assad's regime. Their options are: 



1) Taking further diplomatic and economic measures. The Western powers and their Arab allies may well turn to the UN General Assembly, urging it to condemn Mr Assad and support the Arab League peace plan, which requires the Syrian leader to hand over power to his vice-president. Meanwhile, the European Union's foreign ministers will meet on Feb 27. They will consider tightening sanctions on Syria, although the most significant step – imposing an oil embargo – has already been taken.
 

Likelihood: High 


2) Helping the Free Syrian Army. The presence of a guerrilla force consisting largely of defectors from the regular army presents opportunities and pitfalls for Western policy-makers. Having reached the limits of the non-military measures that can be taken against Mr Assad, the temptation will be to aid his opponents. Britain already has official links with the Syrian National Council, an umbrella movement of opposition parties. The next step might be to develop ties with the FSA leadership. But what kind of help could be given to the rebels?
 

– Non-lethal assistance, probably involving logistics, intelligence, communications and reconnaissance. All this would make the FSA more capable and increase the threat it poses to Mr Assad.
 
 
– Directly supplying the FSA with weapons and ammunition. This would be the quickest way of building up the rebels, but it would also breach an EU arms embargo on Syria. And what if the rebels used their newly supplied weapons to kill civilians or carry out sectarian atrocities?
 
Likelihood: Low 

– Turn a blind eye to Arab countries supplying the FSA. If the West gave the rebels non-lethal aid, this would provide tacit diplomatic cover for Syria's Arab neighbours to supply the insurgents with weapons. Qatar, which helped Libya's insurgents with Britain's quiet approval, might be a key player.
 
Likelihood: Medium 

3) Taking direct military steps against Mr Assad, notably by imposing a no-fly zone or buffer areas where civilians would be safe from attack. But any such action would have no Security Council authority, making it illegal. A no-fly zone would be an "act of frustration to solve a non-existent problem," said Jonathan Eyal, head of security studies at the Royal United Services Institute, pointing out that Syria's air force has played no role in the crisis. As for buffer zones, there would be "no point in proclaiming them unless you are willing to defend them," added Mr Eyal - and that would mean "direct military confrontation".
 
Likelihood: Low 

The problem with all these options is that they risk causing more bloodshed. Helping the regime's opponents would embolden them and cause more fighting. From Mr Assad's perspective, if he concludes the FSA is about to receive outside support, he will try to crush the rebels before they grow stronger. That might explain the bloodshed in Homs.
 
Another option would be to draw back and urge a negotiated settlement. "We're now at a decision point," said Sir Andrew Green, a former British ambassador in Damascus. "We must be very careful that we do not inflame an incipient civil war in Syria. Our policy should be directed towards mitigating conflict in Syria, not exacerbating it." Telegraph

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